
JPY had softened this week after reports indicate that PM Takaichi could call for snap elections soon, raising political uncertainty. USD/JPY has since eased back below 159 after Finance Minister Katayama warned that the authorities won’t rule out any means in response to the weak JPY, raising the risk of market intervention to support the JPY. Katayama has given such warnings several times before but any resultant gains in the JPY have proven fleeting, even if speculative impulses are tempered. Intervention risks would be more pronounced if JPY volatility remains elevated, which could necessitate action by the Japanese authorities to preserve credibility. Given the elevated political uncertainty and possible policy shifts, JPY weakness could linger for now. Meanwhile, the BOJ is reportedly focusing on the price impact of the weak JPY. Though BOJ is still expected to hold rates unchanged next week, pricing of a March rate hike has climbed to a one in four chance from just 8% last week amid sharp JPY weakness.
RMB is diverging from broader North Asian FX trends led by JPY weakness. USD/CNY fixing is on the verge of breaking below 7 and could narrow its gap with USD/CNH at 6.96, and a breach of the psychological 7 level should solidify expectations that PBOC will tolerate gradual RMB gains. Yesterday, the PBOC has opted for targeted 25bps rate cuts on re-lending facilities for rural areas and small businesses. China’s bias towards easing should limit the pace of RMB appreciation, and the authorities are likewise working to temper the Chinese equity rally by tightening rules on margin financing this week. Meanwhile, worries of secondary US tariffs on China for trading with Iran could lessen. Trump has indicated that he is holding off an attack on Iran, following communications with the Iranian government over the treatment of protestors. A gradual de-escalation through diplomacy would be a good outcome and could make the implementation of trade-related measures less pressing.
Quote of the Day
“It takes the black keys and the white keys both, to make perfect harmony.”
Benny Goodman
January 16 in history
The first jazz concert was held at Carnegie Hall in 1938, performed by Benny Goodman and his band.


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