USD Rates: Frontend gets squeezed alongside oil
Higher frontend rates on oil.
Group Research - Econs, Eugene Leow13 Mar 2026
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Frontend USD rates are getting squeezed alongside energy prices as the Middle East conflict shows no signs of deescalation. We had been cautious about inflationary risks. Thus far, attempts to push down energy prices have not worked, with WTI pushing towards USD95 / bbl once again. 2Y breakevens have also pushed to 3.2%, levels not seen since last April as investors start to internalise the risk that energy prices may stay higher for longer. Concomitantly, 2Y yields popped by 10bps overnight to 3.74% as Fed easing bets get pared (less than a cut is priced for 2026). In the immediate term, inflation is a direct corollary of war and will be an issue that policymakers and investors will be acutely concerned about. There may be an impact on growth, but that is more of a medium-term concern. As stagflation worries continue to build, we reckon that curve flattening pressures will persist. Our view of medium-term curve steepening is on hold for now.



Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]



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