
Caution is warranted with USD/JPY at the year's high after Operation Epic Fury, as the pair tests the psychologically significant 159-160 resistance zone amid a dense "geopolitical cloud." While the flight to safety and surging energy costs have favoured the USD over the JPY, the Bank of Japan is expected to deliver a hawkish hold at its March 19 meeting to maintain its path of interest rate normalization. By distinguishing between temporary supply-led inflation driven by the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint and the sustainable demand-pull inflation signalled by robust Shunto wage increases, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda may also be waiting for a potential diplomatic off-ramp on Iran during US President Donald Trump’s visit to China on March 31-April 2.If the Trump-Xi summit successfully de-escalates the Iran conflict and cools oil prices, the current fundamental floor for USD/JPY could give way, making any aggressive long positions at these multi-decade highs particularly vulnerable to both a shift in sentiment and the ever-present threat of Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention.
AUD has emerged as a primary outlier in the G10 space, demonstrating significant resilience against the volatility of the ongoing Iran conflict. This outperformance is driven by stark monetary policy divergence, as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintains a distinct hawkish stance relative to its peers. Following RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s recent affirmation that inflation remains the priority of the dual mandate, noting that price pressures were already exceeding February projections prior to the Iran-related energy shock, markets have aggressively repriced the March 17 policy path. With a 66% probability now factored in for a back-to-back 25 bps hike to 4.10%, AUD/USD reclaimed the 0.7118 level held prior to Operation Epic Fury, reaching a Wednesday high of 0.7187. This price action suggested that the RBA’s commitment to curbing secondary inflationary effects from elevated energy costs is currently outweighing broader "risk-off" sentiment.
Meanwhile, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) initiated a sweeping set of Section 301 investigations targeting 16 major economies, including China, the European Union, South Korea, Japan, and India, to address "structural excess capacity and production" in manufacturing. This move serves as the administration’s "Plan B" following the Supreme Court’s February 20 ruling that invalidated previous tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). By pivoting to Section 301, the USTR aims to establish a more durable legal basis for tariffs before the temporary Section 122 global 10% rate expires in July. While existing Section 301 actions against China remain largely suspended until November 2026, this new wave of probes signals a broadening of trade enforcement. A public docket for comments will open on March 17, with hearings scheduled for May, focusing on trade partners that maintain significant bilateral surpluses and "idle production capacity" detached from global demand. While President Trump aims to leverage the new Section 301 findings to justify extending and potentially escalating global Section 122 tariffs from 10% to 15% after the July expiry deadline, a significant fiscal reversal is still imminent. The US Customs and Border Protection has confirmed that its streamlined system for refunding previously collected IEEPA duties is scheduled to go into operation in late April.
Quote of the Day
"I slept and dreamt that life was joy. I awoke and saw that life was service. I acted and behold, service was joy.
Rabindranath Tagore
March 12 in history
The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland officially joined NATO in 1999, marking the first eastward expansion of the alliance to include former Warsaw Pact members.



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