CNY Rates: Jan–Feb data preview
Steeper curve.
Group Research - Econs, ----Select-----13 Mar 2026
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The CNY curve has steepened in the past week with more policy follow-ups released after the Two Sessions. The 2Y CGB yield anchored at 1.36% and the 10Y yield rebounded from 1.78% to 1.82%. The move reflects improving economic sentiment ahead of the January–February data releases.

First, industrial production is expected to accelerate on the back of strong external demand. Exports growth accelerated by 21.8% yoy in Jan–Feb 2026, supported by resilient non-US trade links, sustaining manufacturing activity. Electrical machinery grew by 27.1% yoy in Jan-Feb-26, of which integrated circuits and automobile grew 72.6% and 67.1%. Domestic demand remains broadly stable, evidenced by the 9-days long CNY holiday data. The average daily revenue increased modestly by 5.5% yoy with per person spendings stay largely flat comparing to same period last year.

Second, price pressures are gradually improving amid ongoing anti-involution measures. Consumer prices rose 0.8% YoY on average in Jan–Feb, with core CPI showing further improvement. Producer prices narrowed their contraction to -0.9% yoy in February, as manufacturing prices turned positive for the first time in over three years. With the strong historical correlation (0.84) between PPI and Brent oil prices and the pricing band mechanism taking effect, CPI is expected to increase by roughly 0.7 ppts if oil averages USD100 per barrel this year.

Third, fixed asset investment is likely to remain moderate, as sentiment toward capital spending stays cautious. However, structural support is emerging from targeted investment in AI and the core digital economy, which is set to account for 12.5% of GDP. Real estate sector, main drag of overall headline FAI, is expected to see city-level measures to manage approvals, reduce inventory, and improve supply.

Byron Lam 林逢雋

Economist 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]




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