Broad USD slippage as markets await Big Beautiful Bill
Weaker USD amid trade negotiations.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang1 Jul 2025
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The USD has eased across the board to its lowest level in over 3 years, with the DXY index breaking below 97. Market focus is on the Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, with the Republican-controlled Senate targeting passage by 4 July, and amendments are now being voted on. Given the bill’s negative implications for the US fiscal deficit and debt trajectory, the USD could stay under pressure.

US-Japan trade negotiations may have stalled, with Trump stating that Japan has refused to accept US rice, and that the US will just send a letter detailing tariffs (instead of a trade deal). But this may also just be Trump putting pressure for concessions, which he had successfully done last week by suspending trade negotiations with Canada to force a retraction of its digital services tax. USD/JPY did not react to Trump’s tariff threat and has eased below 144, in line with other USD crosses. Meanwhile, Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index was surprisingly resilient, rising to 13 for Q2 (Q1: 12). This stands in contrast to analyst expectations for a decline, as well as an insipid China’s manufacturing PMI for June of 49.7. Japan’s manufacturing sector could be seeing positivity from other markets, even if the US market turns more challenging due to tariffs.

Korea’s exports showed an improvement in June, rising 4.3% y/y compared to -1.3% in May. Semiconductor exports were particularly strong due to robust chip demand, surging by 11.6% y/y to an all-time high of USD15bn. The net result is an expansion of Korea’s trade surplus to USD9.1bn from USD6.9bn previously, marking a 7-year high. We still see the KRW as undervalued based on our DEER valuation metric, with USD/KRW hovering near 1350. Meanwhile, BOK Governor Rhee will be joining Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, and BOJ Governor Ueda for a panel at the ECB Sintra Forum today. Markets will watch to for clues on how their respective central banks could respond to US tariffs.

USD/CNH has finally eased to around 7.15 amid a softer USD, while USD/CNY fixings have also been easing in tandem, with yesterday’s fixing of 7.1586 being the lowest since Nov 2024.  Despite this marginal appreciation, the RMB NEER remains very low due to the sharp appreciation seen in other currencies such as EUR. There could thus be scope for further, gradual RMB gains.

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]
 
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