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CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS

Bank of Thailand (BOT) (26 August)

We expect the BOT to maintain its policy rate at 1.00% at its August meeting, extending the pause following June’s unanimous decision. Economic growth remains uneven, with both private consumption and foreign tourism weak but stabilising, while goods exports and private investment remain strong. Headline inflation, although elevated, has eased for three consecutive months, falling to 1.9% yoy in July from rates near the upper end of the BOT’s 1-3% target range, largely due to lower energy prices. Given the uneven pace of economic growth and headline inflation remaining within the central bank’s target range, the BOT retains scope to keep monetary policy unchanged and accommodative in order to support the economic recovery and complement fiscal policy amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Bank of Korea (27 August)

We expect the Bank of Korea to raise the base rate by a further 25bps to 3.00% at this meeting, alongside an upgrade to its annual macroeconomic forecasts. There is significant room for the BOK to revise up its 2026 GDP growth forecast to around 3.5%, from the current 2.6%, given the stronger-than-expected 1H growth of 3.8% yoy. There is also room to revise up its 2027 CPI inflation forecast to close to 3.0%, from the current 2.3%. Although headline CPI moderated slightly to 2.8% yoy in July, from 3.2% in June, core CPI continued to edge up to 2.6% from 2.5%, while housing prices also increased further, to 2.7% from 2.6%. These developments should keep the BOK cautious about the risk of inflation remaining above its 2% target for an extended period.

A hawkish hold at this meeting cannot be ruled out, however. This view mainly reflects the recent tightening in financial market conditions, driven by strong KRW appreciation and heightened KOSPI volatility. The BOK could therefore keep rates unchanged at this meeting while signalling the possibility of a further hike at the October meeting.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (27 August)

We expect the BSP to raise the benchmark rate by 25bp to 5%. Recent communication from the Governor has been focused on inflation risks, despite readings coming off recent highs (but remains way higher than target) and 2Q growth slowing sharply. Officials would likely prefer to see a more convincing disinflationary trend before drawing a pause. The currency's drift to record lows alongside a renewed rise in Brent prices adds to the case for a pre-emptive tightening response, with the call strengthened further by the moderation in the foreign reserves position. Beyond a likely hike in August, our baseline forecast is for one more hike within the year before slipping into a prolonged pause. Policymakers will monitor signs of a potential shift in the US Fed’s policy bias as well as US yield movements in the near-term.

FORTHCOMING DATA RELEASES

Hong Kong SAR

Exports growth is expected to moderate slightly from 53.4% yoy in June to 44.8% in July, largely reflecting base effects. The moderation is broadly in line with the easing in China’s export growth, from 27.0% yoy in June to 23.9% in July. Nevertheless, trade momentum remains robust, supported by easing geopolitical disruptions following the Middle East ceasefire and strong demand for AI-related electronics. Import growth is also expected to remain firm, reflecting sustained demand for intermediate and capital goods amid resilient export orders and a gradual improvement in investment sentiment.

Singapore

We expect Singapore’s headline and core inflation to rise to 2.4% yoy and 2.3% yoy, respectively, in July, from 1.9% yoy and 1.6% yoy in June. The pickup was due to the delayed pass-through of higher global energy costs reflected in the sharp 17% increase in electricity tariffs in 3Q26, alongside firmer food price increases. This build-up in underlying price pressures likely validated the central bank’s decision to very slightly increase the appreciation pace of its currency policy band at its July review. Policymakers will likely maintain their vigilance and a slight hawkish stance toward upside inflation risks in their commentary on the inflation outlook, given the ongoing disruptions and conflict in the Middle East.

We forecast industrial production growth to rise to 9.0% yoy in July, from 7.2% yoy in June. This was driven primarily by robust expansion in the electronics and precision engineering clusters, both of which continued to be underpinned by strong global demand for artificial intelligence-related hardware. However, factory performance remained uneven, as rising cost pressures and supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on chemicals and general manufacturing clusters.

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