India: Tackling fallout of the energy crisis
Amidst choppy market action, high energy prices weigh.
Group Research - Econs, Radhika Rao1 Apr 2026
  • Oil prices stay high into the second quarter.
  • We draw parallels with policy changes in wake of 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis.
  • Present mitigation efforts span securing supplies to financial market support.
  • We temper our core forecasts in wake of the geopolitical stress.
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SUMMARY

Volatility persists

Markets remain volatile amidst conflicting signals, with the US pointing to a potential deescalation in tensions, while the blockage at the Strait of Hormuz continues. Conflict in the Middle East is at the verge of extending into 2QCY26, at the time of writing. Brent prices averaged around $100/bl in Mar26, ~45% higher than $70.9/bl in Jan-Feb26 besides a sharp jump in gas benchmarks, due to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz (and likely Red Sea next) and damage to physical infrastructure in the region. We had discussed the impact for India in India: Assessing the impact from the Middle East conflict. There is still considerable lack of clarity on the direction ahead, amidst mixed messages on the duration and intensity of the conflict.

Looking back: Response to 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict rally in oil prices

We take stock of the government’s response to the previous energy price shock in 2022 to draw parallels to current geopolitical developments.

Risk mitigation efforts

Given rising risks and heavy reliance on imported fuel, the government and central bank have begun taking steps to limit spillover effects on key economic stakeholders.

Implications for forecasts

With geopolitical tensions spilling over into the new fiscal year in India, we revisit our baseline economic forecasts for FY27. The base case assumption is for oil to stay at $90-$110/bl, followed by a gradual normalisation towards $80/bl in rest of the year. A more adverse risk scenario is for oil to stay elevated at $80-100/bl for rest of CY2026. Brent was up 45% in March vs February 2026. We note that commodity prices can stay elevated for longer, akin to 2022, even if stress in the financial markets ebb.

Monetary policy – rate hikes are not imminent

The macro landscape has changed considerably since the February 2026 rate review. While tariff risks were reduced by the US Supreme Court ruling, external risks have increased significantly, particularly due to rising global oil prices and geopolitical tensions, which can push inflation above the mid-point of the target range. Financial markets have also shown stress, with rising bond yields and currency depreciation, despite earlier liquidity support from the RBI. Reflecting these risks, implied rates have risen sharply as investors factor in the risk of a tighter policy stance.

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Radhika Rao

Senior Economist – Eurozone, India, Indonesia
[email protected]

 
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