- Q4 Real GDP in Japan and Thailand likely improved moderately.
- Bank Indonesia will lean towards a hold, while Philippines’ BSP considers a cut.
- Singapore’s NODX is likely to have maintained a strong beat at the start of 2026.
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Central bank meetings
Indonesia (Bank Indonesia on 19 Feb): We expect the BI to pause and keep the benchmark rate unchanged in February, while monitoring volatility in the equity markets and impact on investor sentiments after the rating outlook change. Authorities have been steadfast in undertaking supportive steps as we discussed here. Domestic inflation is, meanwhile, likely to average over 3.5% yoy due to adverse base effects and festive demand but normalise 2Q onwards. In the near-term, rupiah underperformance amid a pickup in inflation and steady growth might keep the BI from lowering rates. Our baseline call is for further cuts this year, but likely in the second half.
Philippines (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas on 19 Feb): We expect a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting, taking the benchmark rate to 4.25%. Inflation trend, while off lows remains benign, while growth continues to disappoint on graft-led uncertainty. Inflation quickened to 2% yoy in Jan26, largely on higher utilities, but benign compared to official targets. BSP Governor Remolona had signaled earlier that one more rate cut was likely this year, as early as Feb26, beyond which the benchmark rate was “very close to where we want”. The dovish stance for February is likely to be further cemented by disappointing growth numbers for 4Q25, where headline slowed to 3% yoy, at a five-year low. To complement an easing policy stance, the BSP also lowered reserve requirement rates on a range of bank-issued instruments this month, freeing up liquidity for the domestic banking system.
Forthcoming data releases
Japan: 4Q25 GDP growth is expected to rebound moderately to 1.6% QoQ saar, reversing the -1.8% contraction in 3Q. Exports recovered in 4Q25, largely driven by a strong rise in semiconductor shipments amid the AI boom, while the decline in automobile exports narrowed as the impact of US tariffs began to fade. Private consumption remained weak in 4Q25, as inflation continued to outpace wage growth, eroding consumers’ purchasing power.
For full-year 2025, GDP growth likely slightly exceeded our expectations, reaching 1.4%. We currently forecast growth of 0.5% in 2026, factoring in a somewhat weaker global trade environment and slightly lower Shunto wage increases, partly offset by expansionary government spending. There are upside risks to our 2026 forecast stemming from the government’s potential food consumption tax cut following its landslide election victory.
Malaysia: Malaysia’s goods exports and inflation data for January 2026 likely showed firm export momentum and contained price pressures. We expect goods export growth to strengthen to 16.0% yoy, up from 10.4% yoy in December, supported by a low base and continued electronics gains driven by global artificial intelligence (AI)-related tailwinds. Headline inflation likely remained contained at 1.6% yoy in January, reflecting easing global commodity cost pressures and manageable domestic cost dynamics, even as services-related pressures nudged overall inflation slightly higher to 1.6% yoy in December.
Singapore: Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports likely extended their expansion for a fifth consecutive month in January 2026, and we expect an acceleration to 13.5% yoy from 6.1% yoy in December 2025. The overall improvement was supported partly by a low base effect resulting from Chinese New Year occurring in the same period last year. Electronics domestic shipments, which are supported by firm global artificial intelligence (AI)-related tailwinds, likely continued their outperformance against non-electronics.
Thailand: We expect Thailand’s real GDP growth to rebound modestly to 1.7% yoy in 4Q25, up from 1.2% yoy in 3Q. The uptick was driven by improved domestic demand arising from a temporary boost to both private and government consumption due to fiscal stimulus measures in the final quarter of 2025, alongside supportive private investment. The drag from foreign tourism eased, as visitor arrivals recovered gradually in 4Q. Although goods export growth was robust despite slowing momentum, strong import expansion likely resulted in a net trade drag, capping overall gains.
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Related Insights
- Research Library24 Feb 2026
- The Week Ahead: Forecasts, data preview, central bank watch20 Feb 2026
- Thailand chartbook: Firmer 4Q25 growth, Cautious outlook19 Feb 2026
Related Insights
- Research Library24 Feb 2026
- The Week Ahead: Forecasts, data preview, central bank watch20 Feb 2026
- Thailand chartbook: Firmer 4Q25 growth, Cautious outlook19 Feb 2026