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Singapore’s economy has entered 2026 on a firm footing, following stronger-than-anticipated growth momentum in 4Q25. Real GDP growth was lifted to 6.9% YoY and 2.1% QoQ sa from advance estimates of 5.7% YoY and 1.9% QoQ sa. The upward revision was across the broad sectors, driven mainly by much stronger manufacturing and services growth compared to initial estimates. Growth in 2025 therefore was 5.0%, but eased from the upwardly revised 5.3% expansion in 2024.
Incoming data at the start of 2026 and positive carryover effects point to resilient near-term growth conditions. Nonetheless, we expect this resilience to be tested as the year progresses, mindful of lingering external tariff challenges. We therefore raise our 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 2.8% (from 1.8%). This is consistent with potential growth, and easing from the above-trend expansion of the past two years. Alongside the data release, the Ministry of Trade and Industry upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Singapore to 2.0-4.0% (from 1.0-3.0%). It assessed an improved outlook for trade-related sectors compared to November, with balanced global risks.
Global artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds that boosted Singapore’s manufacturing and trade-related services sectors in 2025 appear to be sustaining into early 2026, with the maturing tech upcycle yet to show signs of waning. Incoming manufacturing sentiment data highlight electronics as a key driver of near-term resilience.
We continue to see various tailwinds supporting the growth prospects of modern services firms in 2026, despite external challenges. These include: (1) accommodative financial conditions from low domestic interest rates and improved trading activity partly aided by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’s equity market reform measures, (2) strong AI digitalisation efforts, as well as (3) continued interest in Singapore’s trusted business hub. The domestic construction sector will also be a bright spot in 2026, with the multi-year boom already underway.
US tariffs globally remain higher than the rates before US President Trump’s second term, despite the de-escalation in US trade tensions since April 2025. We therefore expect the lagged effects of higher US tariffs to restrain global trade. Singapore’s non-electronics exports are likely to face downside pressures from these lingering external tariff headwinds, reflecting the uneven dynamics within the trade-related sector.
Amid an increasingly fractured and disruptive global landscape, alongside tighter domestic resource constraints, we expect the Budget 2026 statement on 12 February to strategically position Singapore to remain competitive (see Singapore Budget 2026: Strengthening competitiveness).
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