- Singapore’s 4Q25 GDP growth is expected to be revised higher.
- China inflation is expected to edge up from 0.8% yoy in December 2025 to 0.9% in January 2026.
- Taiwan’s exports are expected to show strong reading in January 2026.
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China: CPI is expected to edge up from 0.8% yoy in December to 0.9% in January, driven mainly by higher food prices. The average wholesale prices of 28 key monitored vegetables and fruits have risen by 16% from their August trough, reflecting seasonal supply changes and earlier weather disruptions. Average pork prices also picked up modestly in January due to seasonal demand. On the PPI front, upstream commodity prices have remained in expansion for seven consecutive months, as indicated by the raw material purchase price sub-index of the PMI. Supported by the anti-involution campaign, the producer price sub-PMI improved to 50.6 in January, marking a return to expansion after 19 months in contractionary territory.
On the monetary front, credit demand remains weak. Both new corporate and household medium- to long-term loans are expected to decline amid cautious borrowing sentiment and ongoing early repayments. M2 growth is projected to tick up slightly to 8.4% yoy in January, supported by improved risk appetite in the A-share market. However, the gap between M2 and M1 growth is expected to remain wide, as corporates and households stay hesitant to spend.
Taiwan: January trade data and the final estimate of 4Q25 GDP are due this week. Exports are expected to show a strong reading of over 50% yoy, reflecting both a low base effect from the Chinese New Year in January 2025 and continued strength in AI-related demand. For comparison, South Korea reported a 33.9% yoy surge in January exports, with semiconductor exports jumping 102.7% yoy. Additionally, semiconductor inventory-to-shipment ratios in South Korea and Taiwan have improved, signaling restocking demand. Separately, the final estimate of 4Q25 GDP is likely to reconfirm strong output growth of 12.7% yoy, translating into 8.6% for the full year 2025. The national statistics agency is also likely to revise up its 2026 GDP forecast, which is currently a conservative 3.5%.
Malaysia: Malaysia’s final 4Q25 GDP data will likely confirm the strong 5.7% yoy expansion first seen in the advance estimates, with broad-based economic growth across sectors. The manufacturing sector remained supported by robust electrical, and electronics activity buoyed by global artificial intelligence (AI)-related tailwinds. Domestic demand remained resilient, amid healthy services activity and sustained double-digit construction growth. The solid end to 2025 provides a firm foundation in early 2026, despite lingering external uncertainties such as from US tariffs.
Singapore: We expect Singapore’s real GDP growth for 4Q25 to be revised higher to 6.4% yoy and 2.5% qoq sa from the advance estimates of 5.7% yoy and 1.9% qoq sa. Manufacturing growth was stronger than anticipated compared to the advance estimates. The data will also confirm resilient services activities, supported by trade-related and modern services sector, while the construction boom was intact amid support from public and private sector projects. Overall growth dynamics looked more upbeat, and with possible positive spillovers into early 2026 despite lingering external uncertainties, we do not rule out a modest adjustment to this year’s official GDP growth forecast of 1.0–3.0%.
India: A new rebased (2023-24 base year) and revised CPI inflation series will be released on February 12. This series is likely to materially broaden the product coverage, with the weight of food due to decrease from 45.9% to 36.8%, while core goes up to 57.9%. These numbers are likely to impart a modest upside bias during the phase of strong food disinflation between Apr-Dec25 (~40-50bp upside to average inflation in that period) and might be partly influenced by methodological changes to the series as well. Under the old series, inflation likely stood at 2.4% yoy in Jan26, though might be revised up under the new series.
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