Key Highlights

• We expect the region to register 4.9% YoY growth, set against five relevant themes.
• Trump 2.0 implications. FDI inflows to benefit from supply chain diversification and China+1 trend.
• Greater intra-ASEAN collaboration is taking shape, as seen from the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone ( JS-SEZ )
• US Fed’s rate expectations and US dollar will sway regional monetary policy action.
• Macro stability parameters are largely sound.

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In the past decade, ASEAN-6 has benefitting from de-risking moves from US-China trade skirmishes, which led to a reconfiguration of the regional supply chain. This transition was further hastened by the pandemic. This period marked an increase in the share of ASEAN-6’s exports to global exports thanks to higher participation in varied sectors, spanning from electronics, advanced manufacturing, to resource-based and downstream industries.

Staying largely non-aligned, this region has benefitted from a shift in productive capacity not only from China but also from other Northeast Asian and Western investors. We expect ASEAN-6 real GDP growth to average 4.9% in 2025, little changed from last year, but its resilience will be challenged by Trump 2.0 policies on trade, negative spillovers from slower Chinese exports, and a resultant slower capex outlook.

Key Takeaways

• ASEAN-6 remains resilient but faces headwinds from global trade uncertainties and US-China relations.
• Political stability supports investor confidence, though external risks persist.
• Monetary policy will be cautious and data-driven, balancing growth support with currency stability.