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Synopsis
ECONOMICS (Radhika Rao)
The outlook hinges on the economy’s ability to shift from design to operational delivery, ensuring that strategic reforms yield tangible gains in growth, productivity and investments. This necessitates a coherent implementation across industry, and institutions, besides appropriate policy support.
Upcoming changes should be seen through the prism of the ‘Sumitronomics’ framework. The framework is coined after Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, a former senior official, an influential economist, and President Prabowo’s late father. It supports a larger role for industrialisation and manufacturing activities, besides use of fiscal policy to boost growth.
As the Prabowo-Gibran administration enters the second year in office, we expect a clear orientation towards boosting growth, with the evolving mix to witness stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Financial markets have given the benefit of the doubt to the currency and bond markets, though investors will remain sensitive to political economy developments.
2026 is likely to be characterised by:
CURRENCY (Philip Wee)
The IDR should enter 2026 with a steadier footing. Bank Indonesia’s forex operations helped stabilize USD/IDR in a 16500-16800 range after the largest protests since 2019 and loss of former Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati – an anchor of fiscal credibility - in August-September. Based on daily closing levels, the trading range for 2025 was 16100-16900, higher but narrower than the 15100-16400 range in 2024. For 2026, BI projects USD/IDR to average 16430, better than the government’s 16500 macro assumption.
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