US monetary policy: Fed’s 3+1 vs market’s 3+3 tussle
3+1 cuts.
Group Research - Econs, Taimur Baig18 Sep 2025
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As expected, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) opted for a 25bps cut to mark the resumption of its rate cut cycle at its September meeting. Having cut by 100bps late last year, the Fed has been on pause so far this year, but its officials had recently signalled the need for some easing, in light of weakening labour market conditions. It is nonetheless striking that inflation pressures are higher at this point than a year ago, and so are long-term interest rates.


Resuming a rate cut cycle at this stage is fraught with risks, which was underscored by Chair Powell in his press statement. He conceded that it is not obvious what to do at this juncture.

Just about all FOMC members now see two more rate cuts this year, but their view on 2026 is characterised by a wide dispersion. The market is siding with the minority view in the committee that another 3 cuts are on the cards for next year, with a 3% terminal rate for the cycle. We think the majority view of a terminal rate of 3.5% will not be easy to sway, especially if inflation begins to surprise on the upside. Tariff passthrough, labour market tightness owing to immigration crackdown, stimulatory impact of tax cuts, massive energy demand around AI-spending, strong household and corporate balance sheets, and a booming equity market, all point toward upside risk to inflation, in our view. We therefore stay with the view that the rate cut cycle will stall after 100bps of cuts. That takes us to two more cuts this year and just one more in 1Q26. 

Taimur Baig, Ph.D.

Chief Economist - Global
[email protected]


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