Guarding against complacency – Fed’s independence risks vs. France’s political crisis
USD stressed over Fed, EUR over France.
Group Research - Econs, Philip Wee27 Aug 2025
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The DXY Index depreciated by 0.2% to 99.225 overnight after failing to break above this month’s stiff resistance at 98.5. Conversely, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish pivot towards a rate cut in September did not break August’s support level at 97.5 either. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.4% to 6465.94, approaching the record high of 6481.34, which it hit in mid-August. Market gains were driven by strong corporate news and tech optimism, as well as the prospects for the Fed’s rate cut in September. For now, investors have brushed aside Trump-related risks surrounding Russia and Ukraine, and the Fed.

However, we continue to guard against complacency, which can be detrimental to markets. US President Donald Trump’s mission to bend monetary policy to his will risks undermining the USD’s long-term credibility, which is embedded in the Fed’s independence.

The rise in the US Treasury 30-year yield above 4.90% again was triggered by Trump’s effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has challenged his legal capacity to do so. Former Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard warned that Trump’s political manoeuvrings to gain the majority in the seven-member Board of Governors could lead to the removal of 12 Fed district presidents, whose terms are up for renewal in February 2026. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to start interviewing candidates for Powell’s successor in September, well before his term ends in May 2026, which is viewed as another escalated effort to remove Powell early or force his resignation.

While yet rattled, the EUR is paying close attention to the brewing political crisis in France. Prime Minister Francois Bayou has announced a confidence vote on September 8 for his unpopular austerity package for 2026. The far right and left-wing opposition are united in their dissent, with protests and strikes planned soon after the vote. Suppose the vote fails and the government falls, President Emmanuel Macron will likely resist calling another snap election following the poor outcome at the last one in June-July 2024, opting instead for a new prime minister. While this does not alleviate the political deadlock in France, the Eurozone economic outlook for 2025-2026 has become more positive than it looked in 2024, notwithstanding Trump’s tariffs.

Investors in Europe have also become conditioned to “fade” political risks such as the Ukraine-Russia war, Italian politics, and Germany’s fiscal debates. While not ignoring the political risks in France in the short term, we are also mindful of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s optimism on the economic recovery and her ambition for the EUR to gain a larger international role. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel recently remarked that the EUR was not excessively strong and close to its long-term average. Taken together, these top central bankers signalled comfort in the EUR’s level despite its surge this year.


Quote of the Day
“Adversity causes some men to break; others to break records.”
     William Arthur Ward

August 27 in history
The Guinness Book of World Records was first published in 1955.

 




Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
[email protected]

 

 
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