USD slippage amid talks and risks of structural supply shocks
USD slippage as diplomacy returns.
Group Research - Econs, Chang Wei Liang16 Apr 2026
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Markets are now pricing in a diplomatic resolution between US and Iran amid reports of ongoing talks, with risk assets rallying and the USD easing. The DXY index has fallen for 8 consecutive trading days towards 98 and is now at its lowest level since the outbreak of the conflict. By and large, it is fair to conclude that US/Israeli strikes have failed to achieve the strategic objective of turning Iran away from its nuclear goals, and markets are now signalling that the resumption of talks is the better path for US policymakers to pursue. China President Xi has also signalled his support for diplomacy, saying that China will continue to play a constructive role by promoting peace and dialog.

The recovery of the S&P500 to its pre-conflict level does not mean that supply chains will also fully revert to normal. Qatar’s Finance Minister Al Kuwari said that he expects the full-fledged impact beyond elevated energy prices to come in one or two months, seeing risks of energy shortages for some countries and a food crisis from a lack of fertilizers. He also said Qatar could take 5 years to restore facilities and exports damaged by the conflict. The upshot is that commodity prices are likely to be elevated on structural supply disruptions, which should support commodity exporters’ currencies, including AUD and CAD.

JPY’s recovery has trailed behind G10 peers this week, after BOJ Governor Ueda dampened hopes of an April rate hike by flagging uncertainty in the Middle East. USD/JPY is now consolidating around 159, with Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama saying yesterday that she had discussed FX issues with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, and that the authorities are prepared for bold action if needed. Markets are wary of intervention by Japan if USD/JPY tests above 160, and her rhetoric could keep JPY supported even as rate hike expectations diminish.

 

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]


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