Malaysia: BNM’s ongoing monetary pause, with flexibility to tackle external shocks
BNM’s flexible pause.
Group Research - Econs, Chua Han Teng6 Mar 2026
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Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) maintained its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 2.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting on March 5, and we expect the central bank to stay on hold in 2026. Short-term Malaysian government securities yields should therefore remain stable. The Monetary Policy Committee reiterated that the current monetary policy stance remained appropriate and supportive of the economy and price stability. Despite recent financial market volatility and risk aversion, Malaysia’s economy is confronting the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties including escalating tensions in the Middle East and US tariffs from a relatively strong position of solid growth momentum and still-low inflation at the start of 2026.

Following strong 2025 GDP growth of 5.2%, BNM expects momentum to carry into 2026. Growth will be underpinned by resilient domestic demand, driven by favourable household spending amid a healthy labour market and policy support as well as an enduring investment cycle. Electrical & electronics exports continue to benefit from global artificial intelligence (AI) tailwinds, with no signs of the global tech cycle waning, while foreign tourism is boosted by Visit Malaysia 2026. We see the temporary implementation of a global US tariff rate of 10% under Section 122 for 150 days starting from February 24 also providing short-term relief, even if tariffs eventually rise to 15% (lower than reciprocal tariff of 19% previously). While the Middle East conflict sparked by the Iran war is fluid, we assess that Malaysia’s trade would likely benefit modestly from higher global energy prices, given its position as an overall net oil and gas exporter (1.1% of GDP in 2025), in the absence of a sharp global slowdown. Upside inflation that is coming from a low rate would be contained by fiscal subsidies. We are raising our 2026 real GDP growth forecast for Malaysia to 4.7% (from 4.0% previously), and view BNM as being in a favourable position with ample monetary ammunition to respond to unexpected external shocks.

Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
[email protected]
 
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