China 2026 Macro outlook: Quality driven growth
China’s economy is transitioning from an “old economy” led by property to a “new economy” driven by technology and productivity.
Group Research - Econs, ----Select-----20 Nov 2025
  • We expect China GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026 as the first year of the 15th Five Year Plan unfolds.
  • Manufacturing shifts to high-tech, with AI lifting innovation.
  • Infrastructure will be supported by early 2025 LG bond issuance.
  • Export upgrading toward higher-tech, higher-margin goods, deepening global links.
  • Weak property market, aggregate demand and uncertain jobs outlook will remain drags to growth.
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Executive Summary

China’s economy is undergoing a transformation; moving from “old economy” to “new economy”, where investment in property declines, but tech transformation rises. “Old economy” and “new economy” co-exist but go on separate paths. China’s economy is growing in slower speed but towards higher quality. 

We expect China GDP growth of 4.5% in 2026, driven by investment growth in manufacturing, technology, and infrastructure, as the first year of the 15th Five Year Plan unfolds. Weak property market, uncertain jobs outlook, and debt/deflation risks will remain drags to growth.

Key structural drivers:

  • Manufacturing investment: Capital is focused on high-tech sectors, including semiconductors, renewables, digital manufacturing, and advanced materials, with AI accelerating innovation and global competitiveness.
  • Infrastructure investment: Front-loaded local government bond issuance in 2025 provides funding for projects in 2026, emphasising “new infrastructure” such as smart grids, digital transit systems, and climate adaptation.
  • Exports and global integration: Manufacturing upgrades shift exports to higher-tech, higher-margin products, supporting trade with Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Policy support sustains strategic overseas investment.


Key risks:

  • The property market remains the prime risk. High inventories and weak developer balance sheets may dampen consumer confidence.
  • Persistently weak aggregate demand calls for further monetary easing. We see room for a 10bps 1Y LPR cut in December 2025, and another 25bps cut in 2026.

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Mo Ji, Ph.D. 纪沫

Chief China Economist - China & Hong Kong 首席中國經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Nathan Chow 周洪禮

Senior Economist and Strategist - China & Hong Kong 高級經濟學家及策略師 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Economist - China & Hong Kong 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Byron Lam

Economist
[email protected]


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