Digital Assets Update 1Q26: Spike in risk aversion
From crypto selloff to US regulatory tussle over stablecoins, it has been a busy period in the digital assets arena. China’s CBDC push is also worth a close watch.
Group Research - Econs, ----Select-----26 Feb 2026
  • Crypto sell off has legs, while a crypto sentiment index has touched a historical low.
  • Progress on US crypto market structure bill has stalled amid disagreements over stablecoin rewards.
  • We look at disintermediation risks to banks from stablecoins.
  • Autonomous AI agents look to be a trend, leveraging stablecoins on open, global crypto networks.
  • China drives e-CNY adoption via interest-bearing and regulated stablecoin-like features.
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From a sweet spot to sharp risk aversion, crypto assets continue to live up to their reputation of being characterised by substantial volatility. Having enjoyed a long run since the return of Donald Trump as the president of the United States, the asset class began losing steam from the beginning of 4Q25, with selloffs accelerating over the past two months. These developments show the limits of the Trump administration’s go-it-alone approach to promoting cryptos, in our view. Speculation frenzy notwithstanding, most regulators outside the US remain wary of the widespread usage of crypto assets. Concerns regarding stablecoins, from financial stability to disintermediation, have become entrenched as well.    

In this report, we consider the wedges emerging within the US financial sector about regulatory approaches to digital assets, especially stablecoins.  We also consider the likely impact of the ongoing AI wave on the digital asset ecosystem. Central Bank Digital Currencies are not getting the kind of attention as stablecoins these days, but they may turn out to be equally, if not more, consequential. In this context, we examine the progress made in China on e-CNY adoption.

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Taimur Baig, Ph.D.

Chief Economist - Global
[email protected]

Chang Wei Liang

FX & Credit Strategist
[email protected]

Nathan Chow 

Senior Economist and Strategist - China & Hong Kong
[email protected]

Samuel Tse 

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 
[email protected]

 

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