Hong Kong SAR: Broadening recovery
The economy expanded 3.8% yoy in Q4, with sequential growth of 1.0% qoq.
Group Research - Econs, ----Select-----3 Feb 2026
  • Rising tourist arrivals and positive wealth effects boosted private consumption.
  • Lower interest rates supported investment sentiment, loan growth, and capital market activity.
  • Increased foreign companies created more job opportunities.
  • We expect moderation in trade amid global headwinds and base effect from front-loading activities.
  • Implication for forecast: GDP growth is projected at 3.0% in 2026.
Article image
Photo credit: Adobe Stock Photo
Read More

Click here to read the full report

Hong Kong’s real GDP grew by 3.8% yoy in Q4, bringing full-year growth to 3.5% in 2025. Sequential growth remained steady at 1.0% qoq, supported by robust exports and private consumption. While momentum in financial markets and sustained tourism upcycle are expected to anchor growth, structural constraints—high costs and shifting spending patterns—are likely to temper the recovery’s breadth. GDP growth is projected at around 3.0% for 2026.

Consumption and tourism

Private consumption expenditure rose from 2.4% yoy in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4. While part of the improvement reflected base effects, it was also supported by a weaker HKD, an 11% yoy rise in Mainland tourist arrivals, and positive wealth effects from a stronger equity market. Hang Seng Index surged 28% yoy in 2025, with average daily turnover reaching HKD250bn.

Large-scale events continue to attract visitors, and the Fed’s rate downcycle provides a favourable backdrop for Hong Kong’s retail sector. With another 25 bps of cuts expected by 1Q26, we forecast USD/CNY to strengthen further to 6.75. A softer US and HK dollar should sustain tourism growth, boost retail competitiveness, and reduce outbound travel by residents.

Unemployment

Although the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8% for the 3rd consecutive month, jobless rates in retail, construction, and services have eased from last year’s peaks. Improving property market sentiment, and the rollout of the Northern Metropolis projects should help support construction employment going forward. Moreover, the number of foreign companies increased by 11.1% yoy to a record 11,070 units, creating more job opportunities.

Investment

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) surged from 3.4% yoy in Q3 to 10.9% in Q4. System loan growth accelerated from 1.2% yoy in November to 2.3% in December, extending its expansion for an 8th consecutive month. Lowered HKD interest rates are expected to drive further credit growth this year. Loans to financial, investment and stockbroking companies rose 11.9%, 18.0% and 29.1% yoy, respectively, backed by supportive asset market performance.

Property

Hong Kong’s residential property market is entering a measured recovery, supported by lower mortgage rates. Pent-up demand is being released. Eased property curbs are attracting more Mainland buyers, while policies for non-local students are boosting rental demand. Lower borrowing costs, combined with positive carry encourage investors to return to the market.

Housing prices rose 4.7% yoy in 2025, alongside a 10% decline in unsold units, pointing to an improving market balance. The recovery is expected to stay orderly, supported by developers’ flexible pricing strategies that continue to facilitate inventory absorption. Our property team projects housing price growth of 5-10% in 2026.

On the commercial front, the decline in office rents narrowed from 9% in 2024 to 3% yoy in 2025. We expect elevated office vacancy rates to ease in 2026, supported by stronger capital markets and a robust IPO pipeline, which have boosted demand from financial and professional firms. This is evidenced by a 17% yoy rise in the number of regional headquarters for foreign financing and banking companies, which reached a record 350 units.

Trade

Hong Kong export performance in 2025 exceeded expectations, highlighting the city’s external resilience. Real goods exports accelerated from 12.0% yoy in Q3 to 15.5% in Q4. The city’s customs exports rose 15.3% yoy in 2025, reflecting broader export diversification and stronger trade ties with ASEAN.

Global headwinds could temper export growth going forward. While 2025 benefited from early shipments ahead of new tariffs, exports may normalize as inventories adjust. Ongoing trade restrictions and geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape external demand.

Conclusion

Overall, Hong Kong’s economic recovery has broadened, with private consumption benefiting from rising tourist arrivals and positive wealth effects, while lower HKD interest rates have underpinned investment sentiment, credit demand, and capital market activity. External demand could soften in 2H26 amid global headwinds and the fading boost from earlier front-loading in trade. (Hong Kong 2026 Outlook: Dual-speed Recovery) GDP growth is projected to be 3.0% in 2026.

Click here to read the full report

Mo Ji, Ph.D. 纪沫

Chief China Economist - China & Hong Kong 首席中國經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

Nathan Chow 周洪禮

Senior Economist and Strategist - China & Hong Kong 高級經濟學家及策略師 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

 

Samuel Tse 謝家曦

Senior Economist- China & Hong Kong 資深經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]


Byron Lam 林逢雋

Economist 經濟學家 - 中國及香港
[email protected]

 


Subscribe here to receive our economics & macro strategy materials.
To unsubscribe, please click here.
 
 

Topic

Explore more

E & S Flash
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates & Digital Assets)

The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and/or DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (each and/or collectively, the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation.  Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company, or any of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The Company and its associates, their directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or other interests in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking or financial services for these companies.  The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction (including but not limited to citizens or residents of the United States of America) where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.  The information is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction (including but not limited to the United States of America) where such an offer or solicitation would be contrary to law or regulation.

[#for Distribution in Singapore] This report is distributed in Singapore by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is Exempt Financial Advisers as defined in the Financial Advisers Act and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. DBS Bank Ltd may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, DBS Bank Ltd accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact DBS Bank Ltd at 65-6878-8888 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

DBS Bank Ltd., 12 Marina Boulevard, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Singapore 018982. Tel: 65-6878-8888. Company Registration No. 196800306E.

DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch, a company incorporated in Singapore with limited liability. 18th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

DBS Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong with limited liability.  11th Floor, The Center, 99 Queen’s Road Central, Central, Hong Kong SAR.

Virtual currencies are highly speculative digital "virtual commodities", and are not currencies. It is not a financial product approved by the Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission, and the safeguards of the existing investor protection regime does not apply.  The prices of virtual currencies may fluctuate greatly, and the investment risk is high. Before engaging in such transactions, the investor should carefully assess the risks, and seek its own independent advice. 

 

DISCLAIMER

This publication is distributed by PT Bank DBS Indonesia (DBSI). DBSI is licensed and supervised by the Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS). This publication is not and does not constitute or form part of any offer, recommendation, invitation or solicitation to you to subscribe to or to enter into any transaction as described, nor is it calculated to invite or permit the making of offers to the public to subscribe to or enter into any transaction for cash or other consideration and should not be viewed as such.
Learn More