Singapore 2026 Outlook: Measured Resilience
Singapore’s economic resilience will be tested in 2026.
Group Research - Econs, ----Select-----2 Dec 2025
  • In 2026, trade-related moderation will be cushioned by the modern services and construction sectors.
  • Inflation to rebound but remain contained.
  • No changes are expected to the SGD NEER policy parameters in 2026.
  • The policy focus will be to refresh the economic blueprint to sustain long-term economic vibrancy.
  • USD/SGD to trade in a 1.25-1.30 range; Difficult for SGD rates to outperform again.
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Singapore is at a critical juncture, having successfully navigated the six decades since independence.
The globalised economy is exposed to global shifts towards geoeconomic fragmentation, rapid technological advancement, and climate change, trends that we expect to persist in 2026 and beyond.

Economic growth in 2026 will navigate the “2Ts” (tariffs and the tech cycle), with external tariff headwinds biting but with measured resilience. We forecast GDP expansion close to its potential rate, cushioned by the city-state’s solid capabilities and fundamentals as a trusted and reputable financial centre and business hub, digitalisation, alongside a domestic construction boom.

Inflation, while rising in 2026, will remain contained. Price pressures will be influenced by global cues of waning price declines, manageable domestic business cost pass-through to consumer prices, and some administrative price hikes aligned with long-term green transition efforts.  

Policymakers have buffers for countercyclical responses to any unexpected negative shocks in 2026. We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to keep the powder dry in 2026, safeguarding flexibility in a highly uncertain and volatile global environment, after easing twice in 1H25. Investors will remain reassured of Singapore’s ongoing political stability and policy continuity in 2026 and beyond under the refreshed leadership led by the fourth generation (4G) team. The focus will be on sustaining economic competitiveness in a tough landscape (see ‘Singapore: Implications of a strong PAP election victory’).

Our financial markets outlook for 2026 will be characterised by a lower USD/SGD, while SGD rates outperformance, from a receive perspective, will be difficult to replicate in 2026.

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Chua Han Teng, CFA

Senior Economist - Asean
hantengchua@dbs.com

Philip Wee

Senior FX Strategist - G3 & Asia
philipwee@dbs.com

Eugene Leow

Senior Rates Strategist - G3 & Asia
eugeneleow@dbs.com
 


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